December 11th, 2015

Some questions about death and infection rates

time: nowish; place: in the general vicinity of Washington and Oregon, at least initially

I'm trying to confirm that I'm getting reasonable figures for death rates, and trying to find rates of infection, so I can construct a timeline for my zombies--I have a zombie fungus that 1. only zombifies you once you die from something else, and 2. only spreads by fairly direct fluid-to-fluid contact (kissing, biting, sex).

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My.. ballpark guess is that there would be at most a few thousand people infected within a couple of months, at which point the first zombie besides patient 0 is formed. A few weeks later, we get our second known zombie, with subsequent zombies coming at a slightly increasing rate thereafter (as the infection continues to spread). There will be a major uptick when someone starts *deliberately* spreading the infection (the first zombie hive, formed after a plane crash shortly after the first known zombie), but some of those won't be detected as zombies (for reasons that will be a bit complicated to explain now).

Does anyone who knows about this sort of thing think my figures sound about right, or have better ones? (if it happens *too* quickly, I'll need to make the plane crash happen before the first known zombie, so my hive has time to establish itself)
(edited to add cuts)